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SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK
Just ten months into 2024, shipyards’ deliveries of container ships have reached a new annual record. A total of 410 ships with a capacity of 2.5m TEU have been delivered, surpassing the previous full year high of 2.3m TEU in 2023.
August 2024
US grain exports seen rising 12%, but sailing distances could shorten
In 2024, grain exports from the US are expected to rise 12% from 2023, driven by a rebound in maize shipments. During the first seven months of 2024, shipments have risen 6% y/y and are expected to further ramp up after the upcoming maize and soya bean harvests in September. Water levels in the Mississippi River are at normal levels which should facilitate the transport of the harvests to seaports.
India now depends on Russia for 40% of its crude oil imports
During the past three months, India has relied on Russia for 40% of its seaborne crude oil import. Year-to-date, volumes have reached an average of 1.6 million barrels per day (mbpd), an increase of 1000% compared to 2021, before Russia invaded Ukraine.
July 2024
Container ship fleet expands by 11%, fastest growth in 15 years
Since the beginning of the year, the capacity of the container ship fleet has increased by 1.6m TEU. Compared to one year ago, the capacity has risen 11% to 29.5m TEU, the fastest fleet growth in 15 years.
Dry bulk newbuild contracting fell 34.2%, despite a strong market
During the first half of 2024, newbuild contracting in the dry bulk sector fell 34.2% y/y despite favourable market conditions. A 6.5% y/y increase in prices could be deterring contracting, yet in the second-hand market, where prices rose 15.2% y/y, the number of sales still increased 11.7% y/y. Other factors, such as limited shipyard availability and uncertainty on fuels and demand outlook could be contributing to this hesitation.
June 2024
Newbuilding prices climb 3% to highest level in 16 years
Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2020 they are up 53%. During the same period, the order book has grown by 72%, reaching its highest level since early 2012 and is up 2% year-to-date.
Charter owners’ share of fleet has fallen to 40%, lowest since 2002
The charter owners’ container fleet has grown at an average annual rate of 3.2% for the past twelve years and currently stands at 11.7m TEU. The operator owners’ fleet has however grown faster, so the charter owners’ fleet now makes up only 40% of total container fleet capacity, down from 50% in 2012.
May 2024
Dry bulk sailing distances jump 31% for routes using the Panama Canal
The limits in daily transits in the Panama Canal have significantly affected the dry bulk market, with transits down 74% y/y between January and April 2024. During this period, sailing distances for completed voyages in the affected routes rose 31% y/y, while the cargo volume dropped 25% y/y. Overall, tonne mile demand for these routes fell 1% y/y.
Peak in China’s coal demand in sight as renewables jump 12%
Between January and April 2024, China’s electricity generation from renewables surged 12% y/y, significantly outpacing the 6% growth in generation from fossil fuels. While steam coal shipments to China rose 29% y/y, they are starting to feel the pressure from stronger renewables. Between March and April, the shipments fell 7% y/y as electricity generation from fossil fuels only rose 1% y/y.
Global soya bean exports expected to grow 8% until 2025
Global soya bean exports are forecast to grow by 8% between 2023 and 2025 based on data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Stronger import demand from China will be met by larger harvests in the US and Brazil and in the near term, soya beans are expected to be a key growth driver for global grain shipments.
Container ship deliveries hit new YTD record of 1m TEU
In 2023, 2.3 million TEU of container ship capacity was delivered, beating the former all-time high by 37%. Year-to-date another record has been set as more than 1 million TEU has already been delivered during the first four months of the year, an increase of nearly 80% compared to the previous record.
