The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) has year to date 2023 fallen 28% compared to the same period last year whereas the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index is down 9%. However, both indices remain higher than the ten year average. Time charter rates have fallen from the highs achieved in late 2022. Yet they r... Please follow the link to continue reading.
We have increased the cargo demand forecast in our base case scenario and now estimate that crude tanker volumes will increase by between 1% and 2% in both 2023 and 2024. This is an increase of 1 percentage point in 2023. For the product tanker market, we similarly increase our 2023 cargo demand gro... Please follow the link to continue reading.
We forecast that the crude tanker market will end 2023 with cargo volume growth of between 0.5% and 1.5% but see tonne miles increase between 4.5% and 5.5%. Cargo volume growth is predicted to accelerate to between 2% and 3% in 2024 and moderate to between 1% and 2% in 2025. As sailing distances a... Please follow the link to continue reading.
Houthis continue to attack ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, and there is no end to the conflict in sight. We therefore base our forecasts on the assumption that rerouting of ships away from the Red Sea and the Suez Canal towards the Cape of Good Hope may impact the market throughout 2024,... Please follow the link to continue reading.
We forecast that crude and product tanker supply will grow in line with fleet growth during both 2024 and 2025. Crude tanker supply is therefore estimated to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. Product tanker supply is predicted to grow 1.5-2.0% in 2024 and 4-5% in 2025. The crude tanker fle... Please follow the link to continue reading.
In our main forecast scenario, we assume that a solution to the crisis in Israel and Gaza may be found this year which could in turn also bring the Red Sea attacks to an end. The scenario therefore includes an expectation of a return to normal Red Sea and Suez Canal routings throughout 2025, whereas... Please follow the link to continue reading.
Despite weaker cargo volumes during the first half for both the crude and product tanker markets, we forecast a recovery during the second half and that both markets on average will see a stronger 2024 than 2023. Muted fleet and supply growth in both markets during 2024 is a key enabler for the re... Please follow the link to continue reading.
We forecast that crude tanker cargo volumes will grow 1.0-2.0% year-on-year in both 2024 and 2025. The average sailing distance is predicted to increase 7% in 2024 due to ships avoiding the Red Sea and the Suez Canal but fall approximately 5.5% in 2025 as we assume that ships may be able to return... Please follow the link to continue reading.
Even though cargo volumes and tonne miles quickly recovered from a seasonal dip early in the year, freight rates have not yet been able to fully match the peaks of the 4th quarter 2022. Earnings, however, remain solid and time charter rates and second-hand ship prices are at their highest levels sin... Please follow the link to continue reading.
We forecast that the crude tanker market will see cargo volume growth of between 2.0% and 3.0% in 2023 and between 3.5% and 4.5% in 2024. As average sailing distances are increasing, we estimate tonne miles growth of between 5.0% and 6.0% in 2023, and between 5.5% and 6.5% in 2024. In the product... Please follow the link to continue reading.
